Winter is just around de corner ! (Prévision météo hiver 2012-2013)
Bonjour à vous!
Les températures froide semblent vouloir s'installer rapidement cet automne. C'est sans doute ce qui a inspiré la station Killington qui a ouvert ses portes aux détenteurs de billet de saison samedi le 13 octobre.
Du coté de Sunday River les canons à neige sont aussi en fonction.
Il y a aussi de l'action dans les Laurentides du côté de Saint-Sauveur par contre c'est plus un test que le début des opérations d'enneigement artificiel.
Maintenant voici les prévisions(et/ou prédiction et/ou winter forecast et/ou élément ) météo pour l'hiver 2012-2013 for the United-States et normalement nous devrions connaître les prévisions pour le Canada (le plus beau pays du monde mais assurément derrière le Japon pour le ski ) cette semaine. Source Accuweather.
The 2012-2013 Winter Season is expected to be a busy year, especially the East which had very little snowfall when compared to last year. Last year was also a mild winter for many areas extending from the northern Plains to the Northeast. After a record-breaking March, we stepped into a summer that so far has not let up with intense heat and drought impacting the center of the nation. We believe that these past events will impact the weather for this coming Fall and Winter Season.
For the East, snowfall may average above normal across the mid-Atlantic into southern New England. We believe that snowfall will average closer to normal for the interior Northeast through northern New England.
The Southeast can be wetter than normal with cooler temperatures. The stormtrack may be dominated by the southern branch the first part of the season, until the northern jet increases in strengthen with more opportunities for phasing mid- to late season. This means more widespread rain than snow events early or storms passing off the Southeast coast and out to sea. The question still remains how much blocking sets up this year.
For the Central U.S.
For the northern and central Plains, snowfall is expected to be below normal with near- to above-normal temperatures. With a weak El Nino, there is too much variability to make a call farther east into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. 1977-78 was a snowy season in Chicago with snow amounts over 80 inches, but in 2006 snowfall was in the 20s, both weak El Nino events. Strong El Ninos are drier for the Midwest and Ohio Valley, so we will allow for near normal in this region for now. The southern Plains may end up below normal with occasional shots of cold behind bigger East Coast systems.
For the Rockies and West..
Early start to the season is expected with October and November storms anticipated for the southern and central Rockies. Many weak El Nino Falls showed above-normal snowfall for this area. Also, the Northwest could see normal to above-normal moisture in the Fall, meaning good snow build up in the mountains. However, as the jet splits in the winter, the intensity and frequency of events will lower and so will the amount of snowfall. Cold will surge early south into the Rockies but expected to shift east during the winter.
We are heading into an El Nino Fall and Winter. Signals suggest that this will be a weak El Nino, possibly peaking in the mid- to late Fall. Weak signals of El Nino and La Nina can result in variability. Therefore, up until the time we arrive at the final Winter Season Forecast in the fall, the following points will be researched and addressed which can impact the trend of the winter forecast:
• ENSO- What impact of a weak El Nino compared to a strong El Nino and how peaking in the Fall may impact normal conditions during an El Nino Winter. For example, statistics show variability in snow amounts for Chicago, discussed earlier, but below much below normal in a moderate to strong El Nino.
• Typically in an El Nino winter, a split jet stream pattern develops for most of the season. We feel confident this year that the southern branch will be active, bringing plenty of moisture to southern Rockies, Gulf Coast and the Southeast. But, how fast do we see the northern jet make an impact, transporting colder air into the pattern and leading to phasing? We are leaning toward later in December or January.
• Last year we saw very little blocking develop over the northern Atlantic. This year we feel that blocking will increase, but does this happen in early, mid- or late winter.
• Will drought and heat this summer into the Fall impact the Midwest and north-central Plains? In a more typical and stronger El Nino Winter, these areas are usually drier. Our forecast is for a warm Fall in the Ohio Valley, Lakes and the Northeast with below-normal precipitation away from the coast. Almost perfect conditions would have to set up to have another storm like last October for the Northeast. This year is a low percentage chance for that occurrence.
• Water temperatures are running warmer than normal around the Lakes and Hudson Bay. We'll this modify colder air masses as they reach the East early in the season. This certainly can happen if the southern part of the jet stream stays stronger than the northern part through November and perhaps into December.
• Warm water temperatures off the New England coast... Could this lead to cyclogenesis and rapidly intense storms. You do not need blocking for this to occur and this can lead to bigger storms along the coast.
• The PNA will be just as important as the NAO this year. The NAO can give us an idea of blocking. A positive PNA can lead to a strong upper ridge in the Northwest or western Canada which increases the northern jet from northwest Canada, southeast into the U.S. with the cold air needed for strong storms and possible big snow events. The European model, right now, shows a positive signal developing in December.
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Salomon Freeski TV S6 E01 - Tabibito (Le Voyageur)
Les températures froide semblent vouloir s'installer rapidement cet automne. C'est sans doute ce qui a inspiré la station Killington qui a ouvert ses portes aux détenteurs de billet de saison samedi le 13 octobre.
Du coté de Sunday River les canons à neige sont aussi en fonction.
Il y a aussi de l'action dans les Laurentides du côté de Saint-Sauveur par contre c'est plus un test que le début des opérations d'enneigement artificiel.
Maintenant voici les prévisions(et/ou prédiction et/ou winter forecast et/ou élément ) météo pour l'hiver 2012-2013 for the United-States et normalement nous devrions connaître les prévisions pour le Canada (le plus beau pays du monde mais assurément derrière le Japon pour le ski ) cette semaine. Source Accuweather.
The 2012-2013 Winter Season is expected to be a busy year, especially the East which had very little snowfall when compared to last year. Last year was also a mild winter for many areas extending from the northern Plains to the Northeast. After a record-breaking March, we stepped into a summer that so far has not let up with intense heat and drought impacting the center of the nation. We believe that these past events will impact the weather for this coming Fall and Winter Season.
For the East, snowfall may average above normal across the mid-Atlantic into southern New England. We believe that snowfall will average closer to normal for the interior Northeast through northern New England.
The Southeast can be wetter than normal with cooler temperatures. The stormtrack may be dominated by the southern branch the first part of the season, until the northern jet increases in strengthen with more opportunities for phasing mid- to late season. This means more widespread rain than snow events early or storms passing off the Southeast coast and out to sea. The question still remains how much blocking sets up this year.
For the Central U.S.
For the northern and central Plains, snowfall is expected to be below normal with near- to above-normal temperatures. With a weak El Nino, there is too much variability to make a call farther east into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. 1977-78 was a snowy season in Chicago with snow amounts over 80 inches, but in 2006 snowfall was in the 20s, both weak El Nino events. Strong El Ninos are drier for the Midwest and Ohio Valley, so we will allow for near normal in this region for now. The southern Plains may end up below normal with occasional shots of cold behind bigger East Coast systems.
For the Rockies and West..
Early start to the season is expected with October and November storms anticipated for the southern and central Rockies. Many weak El Nino Falls showed above-normal snowfall for this area. Also, the Northwest could see normal to above-normal moisture in the Fall, meaning good snow build up in the mountains. However, as the jet splits in the winter, the intensity and frequency of events will lower and so will the amount of snowfall. Cold will surge early south into the Rockies but expected to shift east during the winter.
We are heading into an El Nino Fall and Winter. Signals suggest that this will be a weak El Nino, possibly peaking in the mid- to late Fall. Weak signals of El Nino and La Nina can result in variability. Therefore, up until the time we arrive at the final Winter Season Forecast in the fall, the following points will be researched and addressed which can impact the trend of the winter forecast:
• ENSO- What impact of a weak El Nino compared to a strong El Nino and how peaking in the Fall may impact normal conditions during an El Nino Winter. For example, statistics show variability in snow amounts for Chicago, discussed earlier, but below much below normal in a moderate to strong El Nino.
• Typically in an El Nino winter, a split jet stream pattern develops for most of the season. We feel confident this year that the southern branch will be active, bringing plenty of moisture to southern Rockies, Gulf Coast and the Southeast. But, how fast do we see the northern jet make an impact, transporting colder air into the pattern and leading to phasing? We are leaning toward later in December or January.
• Last year we saw very little blocking develop over the northern Atlantic. This year we feel that blocking will increase, but does this happen in early, mid- or late winter.
• Will drought and heat this summer into the Fall impact the Midwest and north-central Plains? In a more typical and stronger El Nino Winter, these areas are usually drier. Our forecast is for a warm Fall in the Ohio Valley, Lakes and the Northeast with below-normal precipitation away from the coast. Almost perfect conditions would have to set up to have another storm like last October for the Northeast. This year is a low percentage chance for that occurrence.
• Water temperatures are running warmer than normal around the Lakes and Hudson Bay. We'll this modify colder air masses as they reach the East early in the season. This certainly can happen if the southern part of the jet stream stays stronger than the northern part through November and perhaps into December.
• Warm water temperatures off the New England coast... Could this lead to cyclogenesis and rapidly intense storms. You do not need blocking for this to occur and this can lead to bigger storms along the coast.
• The PNA will be just as important as the NAO this year. The NAO can give us an idea of blocking. A positive PNA can lead to a strong upper ridge in the Northwest or western Canada which increases the northern jet from northwest Canada, southeast into the U.S. with the cold air needed for strong storms and possible big snow events. The European model, right now, shows a positive signal developing in December.
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Voici les prévision météo pour l'hiver 2012-2013 pour le Canada.
Following the third warmest winter on record in Canada last year, AccuWeather.com forecasts snow and cold to make a comeback across much of the nation this winter.
Atlantic Canada and the Maritime Provinces will be one exception to colder weather, but long-range forecasters expect major winter storms to have an impact on the region.
Southern Ontario and Quebec should have a return of winter with near-normal temperatures and snow, especially during January and February.
Slightly colder-than-normal weather with near-normal snow is predicted for most of the Prairie region, which was the warmest spot last winter.
While portions of Alberta and British Columbia may be chilly, a drier-than-normal pattern is expected.
A breakdown of the winter forecast can be found below.
Jump to: Stormy for Atlantic Canada, Maritime Provinces | Snow, Cold Return to Ontario and Quebec | The Stage is Set for Lake-Effect Snow in Ontario | Colder Than Normal for Saskatchewan, Manitoba | Chilly and Drier Than Normal for Alberta, British Columbia
Stormy for Atlantic Canada, Maritime Provinces
A mild and fairly calm December may be in store, but above-normal water temperatures off the coast of Atlantic Canada might allow storms to strengthen further. Big storms are most likely during the middle to latter part of winter.
A mild and fairly calm December may be in store, but above-normal water temperatures off the coast of Atlantic Canada might allow storms to strengthen further. Big storms are most likely during the middle to latter part of winter.
An active storm track later in the season means intense rounds of rain, snow and wind may impact Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.
"For Saint John's and Halifax, we do expect a fairly stormy winter, especially from January through February, a number of coastal storms, I believe, will be coming up in those areas," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "But with at least milder-than-normal temperatures this winter, we could see an equal amount of snow and rainstorms coming into both of these cities."
Farther inland, for a zone stretching from New Brunswick to central and western Newfoundland, snowfall may be above normal. Fredericton, New Brunswick, and Gander and Corner Brook, Newfoundland, are among the cities and towns predicted to receive more snow than usual this winter.
Snow, Cold Return to Ontario and Quebec
Meteorologists anticipate a slow start to winter with a mild and quiet December, but more typical winter conditions will take hold of southern Ontario and Quebec by later in January and February.
Meteorologists anticipate a slow start to winter with a mild and quiet December, but more typical winter conditions will take hold of southern Ontario and Quebec by later in January and February.
"Once we get into the second half of January and February, I believe we are going to see a stronger storm pattern coming up from the south and also some cold air getting tapped from the north. So, I believe we may be actually seeing above-normal snow for places such as Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal during the heart of the winter," Anderson explained.
Averaged out through the entire winter season, snowfall should turn out near normal for Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.
Along with the comeback of snow, arctic air invasions will be possible, particularly across Ontario. The most bitter cold will have a harder time making it into areas farther north and east.
Skiing and snowmobiling conditions should be improved this winter with the return of wintry weather, especially during the middle to latter part of the season.
The Stage is Set for Lake-Effect Snow in Ontario
With the unusually warm water of the Great Lakes, there is a greater potential for heavy lake-effect snow events as long as cold blasts reach the region.
With the unusually warm water of the Great Lakes, there is a greater potential for heavy lake-effect snow events as long as cold blasts reach the region.
"I think starting in December, it's going to be fairly mild, so I think lake effect will be less than normal. Once we get into January and February and get some cold air invasions, we're looking at near- to above-normal lake-effect [snow]," Anderson said.
Se sont les éléments météo que nous aurons à surveiller pour la saison hivernale 2012-2013 selon Accuweather.
Colder Than Normal for Saskatchewan, Manitoba
Colder air may make a comeback across the Canadian Prairies this winter with below-normal temperatures.
Colder air may make a comeback across the Canadian Prairies this winter with below-normal temperatures.
Following a very dry fall across the region, drier-than-normal weather will persist through December across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. That should change during January and February as some quick-hitting storms may have an impact.
"For Regina and Winnipeg, I think we are going to see an increase in Alberta Clipper systems, especially the second half of winter, which should bring quick shots of snowfall to both those cities during that time," Anderson said.
While Alberta Clipper systems are fast-moving and do not have much moisture associated with them, a moderate amount of snow is predicted for this winter. Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg are expected to have near-normal snowfall this winter.
Chilly and Drier Than Normal for Alberta, British Columbia
While a large area of high pressure dominates Alaska and at times western Canada, drier-than-normal conditions may be in store for much of Alberta and British Columbia this winter. British Columbia has already endured water shortages resulting from a record dry fall, and drier weather this winter may add stress to the situation.
While a large area of high pressure dominates Alaska and at times western Canada, drier-than-normal conditions may be in store for much of Alberta and British Columbia this winter. British Columbia has already endured water shortages resulting from a record dry fall, and drier weather this winter may add stress to the situation.
Meanwhile, the door will be open for shots of arctic air across British Columbia and Alberta at times this winter.
"For Vancouver, I think the winter overall looks drier than normal with near-normal temperatures. But with this type of pattern, a drier pattern, the nights are going to be chillier than normal. Also, this opens the door to some quick shots of arctic air," Anderson added. "In terms of storms, storms will be weaker but colder, so that could favor snow a little bit more than we usually see."
Near-normal snowfall is predicted for the Canadian Rockies, likely to the delight of skiers, while Alberta Clipper systems graze the area. With cold air, the snow that falls will stick around through much of the winter and into spring.
Se sont les éléments météo que nous aurons à surveiller pour la saison hivernale 2012-2013 selon Accuweather.
Maintenant retournons au Japon pour le premier épisode de la sixième saison de Salomon Freeski Tv.
Salomon Freeski TV S6 E01 - Tabibito (Le Voyageur)
J'ai l'impression que je vais être sur mes skis avant la fin du mois!
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