Prévision météo hiver 2011-2012
Boujour à vous!
Et voilà comme à chaque automne Accuweather vient de sortir sa prévision météo pour l'hiver 2011-2012. Une chose à retenir La Nina, avec un retour très attendu du "Pineapple Express". La grande question est de savoir où et quand il frappera. Pour vous rafréchir la mémoire lors de sa dernière visite l'hiver dernier du 17 au 22 décembre il avait laissé 13 ft de neige dans la Sierra Nevada.
Donc notre plan pour cette hiver descendre à Salt Lake City (qui était jusqu'à l'an passé le meilleur endroit pour skier au monde selon mon très crédible palmarès maintenant déclassé par Hokkaido au Japon), de surveiller la météo et de bouger pour ne rien manquer. De Salt Lake tout est accessible dans un rayon de 5 à 10 heures de route l'Oregon, le Lake Tahoe, Mammoth Mountain, l'Idaho, le Wyoming et le Colorado sans aucune réservation à l'exception de 2 jours à Silverton au Colorado. L'objectif manger le plus de neige possible dans le plus grand nombre d'état possible le tout en auto depuis notre chère Mauricie.
The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting another brutally cold and snowy winter for a large part of the country, thanks in large part to La Niña... yet again.
La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year's winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast. Monster blizzards virtually shut down the cities of New York and Chicago. Last winter was one of New York City's snowiest on record.
La Niñas often produce a volatile weather pattern for the Midwest and Northeast during winter due to the influence they have on the jet stream. The graphic below shows the position the jet stream typically takes over the U.S. during La Niña.
The way the jet stream is expected to be positioned during this winter's La Niña will tend to drive storms through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Last year, the jet stream steered storms farther east along the Northeast coast, hammering the Interstate 95 corridor.
Therefore, instead of New York City enduring the worst of winter this year, it will likely be Chicago.
"The brunt of the winter season, especially when dealing with cold, will be over the north-central U.S.," stated Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.
Chicago, which endured a monster blizzard last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit cities in terms of both snow and cold in the winter ahead.
AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."
While winter's worst may not be focused over the major cities of the Northeast this year, the region will not get by unscathed. Pastelok warns there could be a few significant snow and ice storms that could pack a punch.
Ice events could also be a problem for areas farther south from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians this season, while a significant severe weather threat develops in the Lower Mississippi Valley in February. This threat is extremely concerning for the areas in Mississippi and Alabama that were devastated by tornadoes in the spring.
The West is expected to be split between mild and dry conditions in the Southwest and highly-variable, frequently-changing weather elsewhere.
Chances that Texas pulls out of its epic drought this winter are extremely slim with below-normal precipitation predicted for a large portion of the state.
Brutal Winter Ahead for the Midwest, Great Lakes
Hands down, AccuWeather.com's long-range experts agree that the Midwest and Great Lakes region will be dealt the worst of winter this year.
Bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected to invade the northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes December through January, while snowfall averages above normal. "A couple of heavy hitters are possible [during this time]," Pastelok said in relation to the snow.
In terms of both snow and cold, this winter is expected to be the worst in Chicago.
Full Winter Forecast for the Midwest and Great Lakes
More Monster Snowstorms for the Northeast This Winter?
Overall, this winter is not expected to be as extreme as last winter for the Northeast's major cities. However, there could still be a few snow or ice storms that have a significant impact.
Snowfall is forecast to average near or even slightly above normal in areas south and east of the mountains from Virginia to Maine.
For areas north and west of the Appalachians, however, snowfall for the season is expected to be much higher. An early, heavy lake-effect snow season will put northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York into the zone of winter's worst snow and cold, according to the team.
Full Winter Forecast for the Northeast
Ice Zone Sets Up Across Southern States; Severe Threat Develops in February
The Long-Range Team expects areas from northeastern Texas and Oklahoma into Kentucky and Tennessee to deal with more ice than snow events this winter, especially from early to mid-season.
Occasionally, icing could affect areas farther east into the western Carolinas and northern parts of Alabama and Georgia. This would be most likely in January.
The team also expects a significant risk for severe weather and flood events to develop over the lower Mississippi Valley in February. Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, which were devastated by tornadoes in the spring, will be extremely sensitive to any severe weather outbreaks.
Full Winter Forecast for the Southeast
Southwest, Texas Stay Parched and Warmer than Normal
"Mild and dry" will unfortunately be the mantra this winter for much of Texas and the Southwest, a region that desperately needs rain. Texas continues to suffer through the worst drought in its history.
Precipitation is expected to remain below normal in southern and western Texas and the interior Southwest this season. "The interior Southwest will be the driest area of the country through winter," Pastelok said.
Northern and eastern Texas, however, could fair a bit better with higher chances for precipitation as cold fronts "make it there with ease", as Pastelok stated. The downside to these higher precipitation chances, however, will be the risk of ice events, especially from late December into January.
Full Winter Forecast for the Southwest, Texas and Southern Plains
West to Experience Big Swings This Winter
Apart from the Southwest, people across the western U.S. can expect large swings in weather conditions this winter, according to the Long-Range Team.
December is likely to feature above-normal warmth across much of the entire West. However, from late December into January, the team expects a transition where cold fronts will drop farther south along the West Coast, reaching northern and central California. This transition should bring temperatures back near normal, away from the interior Southwest.
The famed "Pineapple Express", a phenomenon that occurs when a strong, persistent flow of tropical moisture sets up from the Hawaiian Islands to the West Coast of the U.S., could develop for a time this winter. This phenomenon often leads to excessive rain and incredible snow events.
Full Winter Forecast for the West
The AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Winter Forecast runs in line with meteorological winter, which begins on Dec. 1 and runs through the end of February. Astronomical winter, on the other hand, begins on Dec. 22 this year and runs through March 20.
For the winter of 2011–12, the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting unusually cold and stormy weather. For some parts of the country that means a frigid climate; while for others, it’s lots of rain and snow.
This will be a winter of “clime and punishment.” We are forecasting the upcoming winter will be cold to very cold, from Alberta east across Saskatchewan and Manitoba into western Ontario. Meanwhile, we predict temperatures will average above normal for much of Nova Scotia and, possibly, southern New Brunswick. Near-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere. A very active storm track will bring copious precipitation through the Great Lakes into central and eastern Ontario, Quebec, and much of the Maritimes. Another active storm track over the Pacific Ocean will guide systems into southern and central British Columbia and western Alberta, giving them a wetter-than-normal winter.
Pour vous chers skieurs européens voici ce qu'Accuweather vous prévoit
We are looking at a much different winter than we saw last year. Some of the highlights of last year include some very chilly air over most of the continent early in the year, from November through December. London saw an average temperature of 7.5 degrees below normal for the month of December, and remember all that snow too. We are not looking like we will see such a cold time this year. That harsh start to the year was from a strongly negative NAO as the cold air just kept coming from the Arctic and would not stop. This year, it looks like we will at least start with a near to slightly above normal NAO, which would show a ridge over western Europe and a trough over eastern Europe. Don't forget that when we do see a ridge over western Europe, we can see some much colder than normal temperature over parts of eastern Europe normally, and it looks like we will have this also. Last year we had some very wet weather over Greece and southeastern Europe. That looks to be at least slightly less than last year, but still a bit above normal for parts of the area. But combine that with the cold air we are expecting, and we will see some much more snow than normal.
But let's look closer at the forecast. We are looking at a weather pattern where we see a mean ridge of high pressure over western Europe and a trough digging over eastern Europe. With this trough digging into eastern Europe we are looking at seeing some chilly temperatures over the higher elevations of southeastern Europe, where the opposite will be seen over Spain and Portugal. In northeastern Europe, I had a bit of a tough decision. With the help of Paul Pastelok, our great long range leader, and Jason Nicholls who also does a lot of international forecasting, we are looking at some near to even above normal temperatures are with a blocking pattern trying to setup, especially early in the forecast. The block is from a combination of the lack of sea ice and also some strong trough off to the south, which will also lead to a stronger blocking pattern around. And as we get further into the winter, we are looking at some changes as temperatures try and get milder over some areas like into Italy and even the U.K. as the ridge of high pressure builds. We also try and lose the trough over southeastern Europe, but I think that by that time, enough cold and snow will be seen that even a complete reversal will not matter and it will still average above normal. Below is a graphic with our thinking for the winter across the continent. Also note the less snowfall than last winter area over the U.K. and Ireland. This is going to be a key as last year we saw so much snowfall in the London area. We may struggle to see even a few flakes this year in the air down to London.
Et voilà comme à chaque automne Accuweather vient de sortir sa prévision météo pour l'hiver 2011-2012. Une chose à retenir La Nina, avec un retour très attendu du "Pineapple Express". La grande question est de savoir où et quand il frappera. Pour vous rafréchir la mémoire lors de sa dernière visite l'hiver dernier du 17 au 22 décembre il avait laissé 13 ft de neige dans la Sierra Nevada.
Donc notre plan pour cette hiver descendre à Salt Lake City (qui était jusqu'à l'an passé le meilleur endroit pour skier au monde selon mon très crédible palmarès maintenant déclassé par Hokkaido au Japon), de surveiller la météo et de bouger pour ne rien manquer. De Salt Lake tout est accessible dans un rayon de 5 à 10 heures de route l'Oregon, le Lake Tahoe, Mammoth Mountain, l'Idaho, le Wyoming et le Colorado sans aucune réservation à l'exception de 2 jours à Silverton au Colorado. L'objectif manger le plus de neige possible dans le plus grand nombre d'état possible le tout en auto depuis notre chère Mauricie.
La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year's winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast. Monster blizzards virtually shut down the cities of New York and Chicago. Last winter was one of New York City's snowiest on record.
La Niñas often produce a volatile weather pattern for the Midwest and Northeast during winter due to the influence they have on the jet stream. The graphic below shows the position the jet stream typically takes over the U.S. during La Niña.
The way the jet stream is expected to be positioned during this winter's La Niña will tend to drive storms through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Last year, the jet stream steered storms farther east along the Northeast coast, hammering the Interstate 95 corridor.
Therefore, instead of New York City enduring the worst of winter this year, it will likely be Chicago.
"The brunt of the winter season, especially when dealing with cold, will be over the north-central U.S.," stated Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.
Chicago, which endured a monster blizzard last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit cities in terms of both snow and cold in the winter ahead.
AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter."
While winter's worst may not be focused over the major cities of the Northeast this year, the region will not get by unscathed. Pastelok warns there could be a few significant snow and ice storms that could pack a punch.
Ice events could also be a problem for areas farther south from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians this season, while a significant severe weather threat develops in the Lower Mississippi Valley in February. This threat is extremely concerning for the areas in Mississippi and Alabama that were devastated by tornadoes in the spring.
The West is expected to be split between mild and dry conditions in the Southwest and highly-variable, frequently-changing weather elsewhere.
Chances that Texas pulls out of its epic drought this winter are extremely slim with below-normal precipitation predicted for a large portion of the state.
Brutal Winter Ahead for the Midwest, Great Lakes
Hands down, AccuWeather.com's long-range experts agree that the Midwest and Great Lakes region will be dealt the worst of winter this year.
Bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected to invade the northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes December through January, while snowfall averages above normal. "A couple of heavy hitters are possible [during this time]," Pastelok said in relation to the snow.
In terms of both snow and cold, this winter is expected to be the worst in Chicago.
Full Winter Forecast for the Midwest and Great Lakes
More Monster Snowstorms for the Northeast This Winter?
Overall, this winter is not expected to be as extreme as last winter for the Northeast's major cities. However, there could still be a few snow or ice storms that have a significant impact.
Snowfall is forecast to average near or even slightly above normal in areas south and east of the mountains from Virginia to Maine.
For areas north and west of the Appalachians, however, snowfall for the season is expected to be much higher. An early, heavy lake-effect snow season will put northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York into the zone of winter's worst snow and cold, according to the team.
Full Winter Forecast for the Northeast
Ice Zone Sets Up Across Southern States; Severe Threat Develops in February
The Long-Range Team expects areas from northeastern Texas and Oklahoma into Kentucky and Tennessee to deal with more ice than snow events this winter, especially from early to mid-season.
Occasionally, icing could affect areas farther east into the western Carolinas and northern parts of Alabama and Georgia. This would be most likely in January.
The team also expects a significant risk for severe weather and flood events to develop over the lower Mississippi Valley in February. Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, which were devastated by tornadoes in the spring, will be extremely sensitive to any severe weather outbreaks.
Full Winter Forecast for the Southeast
Southwest, Texas Stay Parched and Warmer than Normal
"Mild and dry" will unfortunately be the mantra this winter for much of Texas and the Southwest, a region that desperately needs rain. Texas continues to suffer through the worst drought in its history.
Precipitation is expected to remain below normal in southern and western Texas and the interior Southwest this season. "The interior Southwest will be the driest area of the country through winter," Pastelok said.
Northern and eastern Texas, however, could fair a bit better with higher chances for precipitation as cold fronts "make it there with ease", as Pastelok stated. The downside to these higher precipitation chances, however, will be the risk of ice events, especially from late December into January.
Full Winter Forecast for the Southwest, Texas and Southern Plains
West to Experience Big Swings This Winter
Apart from the Southwest, people across the western U.S. can expect large swings in weather conditions this winter, according to the Long-Range Team.
December is likely to feature above-normal warmth across much of the entire West. However, from late December into January, the team expects a transition where cold fronts will drop farther south along the West Coast, reaching northern and central California. This transition should bring temperatures back near normal, away from the interior Southwest.
The famed "Pineapple Express", a phenomenon that occurs when a strong, persistent flow of tropical moisture sets up from the Hawaiian Islands to the West Coast of the U.S., could develop for a time this winter. This phenomenon often leads to excessive rain and incredible snow events.
Full Winter Forecast for the West
The AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Winter Forecast runs in line with meteorological winter, which begins on Dec. 1 and runs through the end of February. Astronomical winter, on the other hand, begins on Dec. 22 this year and runs through March 20.
Source Accuweather
For the winter of 2011–12, the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting unusually cold and stormy weather. For some parts of the country that means a frigid climate; while for others, it’s lots of rain and snow.
This will be a winter of “clime and punishment.” We are forecasting the upcoming winter will be cold to very cold, from Alberta east across Saskatchewan and Manitoba into western Ontario. Meanwhile, we predict temperatures will average above normal for much of Nova Scotia and, possibly, southern New Brunswick. Near-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere. A very active storm track will bring copious precipitation through the Great Lakes into central and eastern Ontario, Quebec, and much of the Maritimes. Another active storm track over the Pacific Ocean will guide systems into southern and central British Columbia and western Alberta, giving them a wetter-than-normal winter.
Pour vous chers skieurs européens voici ce qu'Accuweather vous prévoit
OK, we have the official forecast here. You are going to be the first to see it. But in the next week we are going to release it on AccuWeather.com for all your friends that aren't paying for the pro site to see. So, without further adieu.
We are looking at a much different winter than we saw last year. Some of the highlights of last year include some very chilly air over most of the continent early in the year, from November through December. London saw an average temperature of 7.5 degrees below normal for the month of December, and remember all that snow too. We are not looking like we will see such a cold time this year. That harsh start to the year was from a strongly negative NAO as the cold air just kept coming from the Arctic and would not stop. This year, it looks like we will at least start with a near to slightly above normal NAO, which would show a ridge over western Europe and a trough over eastern Europe. Don't forget that when we do see a ridge over western Europe, we can see some much colder than normal temperature over parts of eastern Europe normally, and it looks like we will have this also. Last year we had some very wet weather over Greece and southeastern Europe. That looks to be at least slightly less than last year, but still a bit above normal for parts of the area. But combine that with the cold air we are expecting, and we will see some much more snow than normal.
But let's look closer at the forecast. We are looking at a weather pattern where we see a mean ridge of high pressure over western Europe and a trough digging over eastern Europe. With this trough digging into eastern Europe we are looking at seeing some chilly temperatures over the higher elevations of southeastern Europe, where the opposite will be seen over Spain and Portugal. In northeastern Europe, I had a bit of a tough decision. With the help of Paul Pastelok, our great long range leader, and Jason Nicholls who also does a lot of international forecasting, we are looking at some near to even above normal temperatures are with a blocking pattern trying to setup, especially early in the forecast. The block is from a combination of the lack of sea ice and also some strong trough off to the south, which will also lead to a stronger blocking pattern around. And as we get further into the winter, we are looking at some changes as temperatures try and get milder over some areas like into Italy and even the U.K. as the ridge of high pressure builds. We also try and lose the trough over southeastern Europe, but I think that by that time, enough cold and snow will be seen that even a complete reversal will not matter and it will still average above normal. Below is a graphic with our thinking for the winter across the continent. Also note the less snowfall than last winter area over the U.K. and Ireland. This is going to be a key as last year we saw so much snowfall in the London area. We may struggle to see even a few flakes this year in the air down to London.
Now, some of the big things to hit on this year will be some threats we could see over the continent from this type of pattern. Number one will be the significant snowfall and cold weather over southeastern Europe. Last year we had lots of rain and precip, but temperatures were so mild we struggled to see much snowfall. This year will see less in the way of precipitation, but we will see more cold air around. This trough is likely to last for the entire year, so this may be a big item to look at for the next several months. Number two will be the mild and dry air continuing over Spain and Portugal. If this does happen as we expect, any storms that move in over the U.K. and northern France could bring some stronger winds to the area, and if they do, it may make for a dangerous pattern as the winds could just spark some fires due to the dry weather really continuing. It has been one unrelenting year over that area for heat, and we expect that to continue. By the end of the winter, we get to number three, where we are looking at the ridge building over the area and some mild air pushing into parts of Germany, France, Italy and even farther north for the U.K. and Ireland. So, even though it may be a below normal start over eastern Italy and into Germany, this may quickly get erased by the end of winter with the mild air just flooding in. Either way, below are some images with the expectations for temperatures and precipitation. Remember, it is tough to say snowfall as it varies so greatly due to the water around and into the Alps. A hundred miles can literally mean the difference between all rain along the French Riviera to feet of snow in the higher elevations of the western Alps.
Quand à moi je vous souhaite un excellent hiver blanc et j'espère que la neige qu'on aura en quantité extraordinaire ne traversera pas l'Atlantique. Car on sait tous que skier l'Europe c'est pour les retraités.
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